Asking about the balance between a complete and utter prolonged shutdown and finding ways of reopening society is not a callous one. As with all “treatments” there will be side effects, and long-term side effects can be devastating. What we do realize is that while there are going to be deaths related to Covid19, the truth is, there is no way you can shut down society enough to keep it from spreading. And the longer the society is shut down, the more risk of new deaths we face on the back end due to starvation, suicide, opiate overdose, and violence. We are already starting to see cases of suicide and opiate overuse that people are directly tying to being shut in.
So the question is, where is the balance between the number of covid19 deaths and the number of lives destroyed due to a killed economy? And how long can we keep it shut down before civilization dies altogether and is no longer possible to revive? And is there a more strategic way of selective isolation that can help us bridge that gap?
People contemplating this duality are not impervious to the seriousness of all this. It is irresponsible and divisive to insinuate otherwise. They are taking the responsible position of understanding that there are no good answers here—that every action has a consequence and the extremes of those actions carry extreme consequences. Do we need extreme measures right now? Yes. But like chemo treatment, you want to be on it for as little as possible, so as to limit the amount of time your body is exposed to that poison. And like with chemo treatments, you have a metric as to when it’s okay to start cutting back and to eventually get off. You plan for that point with your doctor, and you try and get there as fast as you can. I don’t understand why we wouldn’t want the same for our economy?
There are some good news in this fight. First, researchers from Stanford University are theorizing that the virus arrived in the US sometime in December, and considering its contagion rate, they’ve constructed models that show that many, many Americans have already contracted covid19… and have recovered. This would mean they are now carrying antibodies and are now immune to it.
Secondly, we cannot know if this theory is correct until we start rolling out antibody tests. These tests will really help us see if this theory is correct or not, but if it is, that would be very good news. It means we could allow those who are carrying the antibodies to go back to work and continue to move the cogs of society forward.
Third, researchers from John Hopkins are discovering using vast global sampling that the virus is considered a stupid virus, which means, it’s not mutating very much. This is good news in that it is much more likely that someone will remain immune to the disease once getting the antibodies.
And fourth, the hydroxychloroquine/zpack combo is proving to be very effective as a treatment in both France and South Korea. One benefit to it is it shortens the duration of the illness almost by half, allowing patients to get treated and then released, allowing more room and resources at our hospitals. If this drug therapy continues to work as it has (and there is no reason to believe it won’t), that too, should give us more confidence in slowly opening up our society.
Getting those tests and treatments made and distributed as broadly as possible should be the goal of our government during our weeks’ long furlough. And then, as soon as we can, we need to start allowing recovered people back into the world to give our economy a head start. Because let’s face it, if we don’t, the potential secondary death rate from a crippled civilization can be just as catastrophic as the virus itself.
